Today’s Listowel fancies:
2.05 List- Japan (win).
2.40 List- Vinnie’s Wish & Art Of America (e/w).
3.15 List- Krispen (e/w).
3.50 List- Vocal Music (e/w).
4.20 List- Rogue Angel & Townshend (e/w).
4.55 List- Easy Game (win).
5.30 List- Debuchet (win).
6.00 List- Doctor Duffy (win).
Rogue Angel back in 2015.
Today’s Listowel fancies:
2.05 List- All The Mollies & Greenpanda (e/w).
2.30 List- Acclamatio (win).
3.05 List- Zawraq (win).
3.35 List- Newcross (win).
4.05 List- Potters Point, Kylecrue & Bentelimar (e/w).
4.35 List- Fabulous Saga (win).
5.05 List- Mount Hanover (win).
5.35 List- Battle Hard (e/w).
There’s no Coneygree but who will take the race today?
Today’s Listowel fancies:
2.10 List- Boxer Dunford (e/w).
2.40 List- Acid (e/w).
3.15 List- Alive Alive Oh (e/w).
3.45 List- Sr Cartage (e/w).
4.20 List- Rule The World & Urano (e/w).
4.55 List- The Welsh Wizard (e/w).
5.25 List- Long Dog (win).
5.55 List- Tts Star (e/w).
Rule! 😉
Posted in Blogroll
Tagged Guinness Kerry National, Kerry National, Listowel, Tears For Fears
These “Nationals” don’t half come around quickly and today it’s the turn of the traditional harvest time version at Listowel Races.
There’s an eighteen strong field today and it’s no less of a conundrum than in previous years. If you’d like a few extra pointers then here’s an excellent article by Ben Aitken of “Narrowing The Field”.
NTF Kerry National Analysis: The Dosage & Trends Assault.
And a little more help from Josh Wright:
Today’s Listowel fancies:
2.25 List- Cape Wolfe (win).
3.00 List- Artistic Integrity (e/w).
3.35 List- Vintage Nouveau (e/w).
4.10 List- Gold Focus (e/w).
4.40 List- Klepht & Muirhead (e/w).
5.15 List- Hash Brown (win).
5.45 List- Egyptian Warrior (win).
6.15 List- Thomas Ledger (e/w).
Cape Wolfe, time to worry! 😉
Well we put up a brave fight together in the Kerry National with our two placed runners but once again most of us were trumped by yet another reserve winning a feature race. White Star Line won the race impressively with a turn a speed at the end which put all the others to the sword. I’m starting to think that any stats and trends written about an Irish feature race should now include the last point…
Yesterdays placers included Hisaabaat (P J Smullen, 7/2), Flatfoot Boogie (Andrew J McNamara, 7/1), Muirhead (D J Condon, 12/1), Questions Answered (R M Power, 10/1), The Mooch (M J Ferris, 16/1) & Pumbaa (Mr P F Mangan, 13/2).
Today’s Listowel fancies:
2.35 List- Late Rosebud (win).
3.05 List- Cottrell (e/w).
3.35 List- Cairdiuil & Mamma Rosa (e/w).
4.05 List- Isben (e/w).
4.35 List- Usuel Smurfer (e/w).
5.05 List- Pires & Redera (e/w).
5.35 List- Murchu & Whispering Hills (e/w).
6.05 List- Stolberg (e/w).
Today’s picture tip! 😉
It’s the feature race of the Festival today and last night the JPFestival team including myself decided to have a close look at the race.
Do you think a JP McManus winner is nailed on or will another owner get a look in?
Once again it was a single winner only for the blog yesterday at Listowel as Lanyard (P J Smullen, 4/1) took the honours.
Today’s Listowel fancies:
2.25 List- Tar Isteach & Mawred (e/w).
2.55 List- Knight’s Templar (e/w).
3.25 List- Minsk (e/w).
4.00 List- Hisaabaat & Stephen Hero (e/w).
4.35 List- Flatfoot Boogie (e/w).
5.10 List- Muirhead & Questions Answered (e/w).
5.40 List- Pumbaa & The Mooch (e/w).
6.10 List- The Ramblin Kid (e/w).
Hoping for a good blow out from Muirhead today! 😉
It’s day three of the Listowel Harvest Festival and if you’re lucky enough to be in attendance I hope you’re not feeling too jaded from all those late nights?
Speaking of late nights, well early evenings, make sure you join us later for a preview and thoughts on tomorrows Kerry Grand National. It will just be a short 15/20 min show so if you can tear yourself away from Emmerdale we’d be extremely grateful.
Here are the essential Kerry National trends from the past ten years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-1
6yo: 2-0-11
7yo: 4-8-36
8yo: 3-6-50
9yo: 1-12-44
10yo+: 0-4-33
Horses aged 5 to 8: 9-14-98
Horses aged 9 or older: 1-16-77
9 of 10 winners were aged 6 to 8.
No horse aged 10 or over has won this in last 10 years from 33 runners (18.9% of total runners).
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-7 or more: 1-1-12
Horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 3-7-29
Horses carrying 10-7 to 10-13: 2-8-44
Horses carrying 10-6 or less: 4-14-90
Horses carrying 10-10+ have won 6 of the last 10 despite only representing 35.4% of total runners.
Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 6-11-62
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 4-19-113
Top Weight: 731F056560F (1-1-11)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 126 or more: 8-21-108
Horses rated 125 or less: 2-9-67
Horses officially rated 135 or higher have won 4 of the last 5.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in first 4 last time
10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run in 8 or fewer handicap chases
10 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers
10 of 10 winners had gained 1 to 4 previous wins over fences
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 3F or further (7 of 10 won over 2M 6F+)
7 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 10K+
9 of 10 winners had contested a graded chase
7 of 10 winners had won or placed at a previous Listowel Festival (1 exception had never run at Listowel before and another had gained their one chase win at Listowel)
8 of 10 winners had run over hurdles on one of their last 2 starts
Other Races
Highest placed finisher from previous year’s Kerry National: 74P9616518 (2-1-10)
Galway Plate winner (Carlingford Lough): 34 (0-2-2)
Highest placed finisher from Galway Plate to run in this: U171300340 (2-3-10)
Hackett’s Bookmakers Handicap Chase winner (Double Seven): 2 (0-1-1)
Tramore Racecourse Members Chase winner (Sweet My Lord): 97 (0-0-2)
Guinness Galway Blazers Handicap Chase winner (Bruff): P7 (0-0-2)
Kilbeggan Midlands National winner (Double Seven): F0 (0-0-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year’s Kerry National, finishing 311
2 of 10 winners ran in the Galway Plate, finishing 65
2 of 10 winners ran in the Topham Chase, finishing 2F
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year’s Munster National, finishing 45
5 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year’s Cheltenham Festival, finishing 44044
6 of 10 winners had run at that year’s Galway Festival
Trainers
Eric McNamara (3-2-11) trained Ponmeoath to win this in 2007 & 2008 and also saddled the first 2 home last year.
Willie Mullins (2-2-15) has won the race twice in the last 10 years.
Tony Martin (1-1-6) saddled the 1st and 3rd in 2009 and the 5th in 2010 while Shark Hanlon (1-0-2) trained Alfa Beat to win this for a second time last year.
Enda Bolger (0-2-3), Davy Fitzgerald (0-2-4) & Dessie Hughes (0-2-5) have each saddled 2 placed finishers since 2003.
British–trained runners (0-1-9) have gained 0 wins and just 1 place from 9 runners in past 10 runnings.
Jockeys
Ruby Walsh (4-1-9) has a super record in this in past 10 years, riding 4 of the last 9 winners.
Barry Geraghty (2-2-8) has gained 3 wins and 2 places from his 9 rides in this since 2002.
Racing Style
5 of 10 winners tracked leader(s)
2 of 10 winners were settled in mid-division
3 of 10 winners were settle towards rear
Price
7 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 10/1, however the last 2 winners have gone off at 20/1 & 33/1.
Favourites (1-6-11) gained their first win in the race for over 10 years in 2009. Level stakes loss of 5.00 since 2002.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
Fortunately one horse pulled me out of the doodoo yesterday at Listowel and it was Fulminata (K J Manning, 8/1). I guess if one nice priced winner keeps coming in each day of a Festival it isn’t such a disaster punting wise.
Today’s Listowel fancies:
3.05 List- Masai (win).
3.35 List- Vasoni & Jembatt (e/w).
4.05 List- Lanyard (win).
4.40 List- Maggie Dalton (e/w).
5.10 List- Bac In A Tic (e/w).
5.45 List- Call Me Bubbles & Isben (e/w).
6.15 List- The Fox Tully & Fire Belt (e/w).
Today’s picture tip! 😉
The Tom Dascombe trained Brouhaha (Harry Bentley, 5-1) was the only saving grace on a difficult racing day with buffeting headwinds at Haydock on Tuesday.
Today sees the Kerry National at Listowel. I always keep an eye on this race as occasionally the form makes it’s way over to the Aintree Grand National the following April eg- Monty’s Pass (2002).
Willie Mullins is very strong handed today and many pundits won’t be able to bring themselves around to opposing Blazing Tempo & Ruby Walsh. But as is so often the case with Willie Mullins being overly represented in a feature race, how many times do you kick yourself thinking “Damn, why didn’t I back his other one?!?”. One which fits that very criteria today is Uncle Junior ridden by the very able and up and coming Paul Townend. Scotsirish, the third Mullins runner is an old favourite of mine but in the past fifteen years there has rarely been a winner over 14/1 (2001, 2007).
Adams Island for the Naughty Boys Syndicate is now being trained by Paul Nolan. A useful sort with Rebecca Curtis, Nolan might just have helped iron out a bit of sketchiness in the geldings jumping. I can’t confess to being over familiar with the jockey M.N.Doran? A jockey search suggests a new kid on the block with no wins so could this be a career defining moment today?
Dancing Tornado in the J.P McManus ownership has a very good career win & place ratio. As you know this team are very much one to keep on the right side of and J.P has his man on board today in A.P. The last two previous runs of being “held up at the back” are classic J.P owned tactics/manoeuvres in my book and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this horse go close.
In summary, I’m going for three eachway bets in today’s feature race. In terms of ranking them it’s the following:
The race takes place at 4.10 pm (GMT). The best of luck to all on this NH Season 2011/12 curtain raiser 😉
Ponmeoath - winner in 2007 & 2008
Hoping to strike gold in the Kerry today! 😉
Posted in Blogroll
Tagged A P McCoy, Dancing Tornado, Guinness Kerry National, JP McManus, Listowel, Ponmeoath, Uncle Junior, Willie Mullins
I'm Steve Mullington from Rochdale. My blog is about the ups & downs of a regular punter and sports fan. A place to come to share ideas, tips and of course-friendly banter!
Mull it Over
Mull It Over 