It’s day three of the Listowel Harvest Festival and if you’re lucky enough to be in attendance I hope you’re not feeling too jaded from all those late nights?
Speaking of late nights, well early evenings, make sure you join us later for a preview and thoughts on tomorrows Kerry Grand National. It will just be a short 15/20 min show so if you can tear yourself away from Emmerdale we’d be extremely grateful.
Here are the essential Kerry National trends from the past ten years:
Horses aged 5 to 8: 9-14-98
Horses aged 9 or older: 1-16-77
9 of 10 winners were aged 6 to 8.
No horse aged 10 or over has won this in last 10 years from 33 runners (18.9% of total runners).
Horses carrying 11-7 or more: 1-1-12
Horses carrying 11-0 to 11-6: 3-7-29
Horses carrying 10-7 to 10-13: 2-8-44
Horses carrying 10-6 or less: 4-14-90
Horses carrying 10-10+ have won 6 of the last 10 despite only representing 35.4% of total runners.
Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 6-11-62
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 4-19-113
Top Weight: 731F056560F (1-1-11)
Horses rated 126 or more: 8-21-108
Horses rated 125 or less: 2-9-67
Horses officially rated 135 or higher have won 4 of the last 5.
7 of 10 winners finished in first 4 last time
10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run in 8 or fewer handicap chases
10 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers
10 of 10 winners had gained 1 to 4 previous wins over fences
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 3F or further (7 of 10 won over 2M 6F+)
7 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 10K+
9 of 10 winners had contested a graded chase
7 of 10 winners had won or placed at a previous Listowel Festival (1 exception had never run at Listowel before and another had gained their one chase win at Listowel)
8 of 10 winners had run over hurdles on one of their last 2 starts
Highest placed finisher from previous year’s Kerry National: 74P9616518 (2-1-10)
Galway Plate winner (Carlingford Lough): 34 (0-2-2)
Highest placed finisher from Galway Plate to run in this: U171300340 (2-3-10)
Hackett’s Bookmakers Handicap Chase winner (Double Seven): 2 (0-1-1)
Tramore Racecourse Members Chase winner (Sweet My Lord): 97 (0-0-2)
Guinness Galway Blazers Handicap Chase winner (Bruff): P7 (0-0-2)
Kilbeggan Midlands National winner (Double Seven): F0 (0-0-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in previous year’s Kerry National, finishing 311
2 of 10 winners ran in the Galway Plate, finishing 65
2 of 10 winners ran in the Topham Chase, finishing 2F
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year’s Munster National, finishing 45
5 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year’s Cheltenham Festival, finishing 44044
6 of 10 winners had run at that year’s Galway Festival
Eric McNamara (3-2-11) trained Ponmeoath to win this in 2007 & 2008 and also saddled the first 2 home last year.
Willie Mullins (2-2-15) has won the race twice in the last 10 years.
Tony Martin (1-1-6) saddled the 1st and 3rd in 2009 and the 5th in 2010 while Shark Hanlon (1-0-2) trained Alfa Beat to win this for a second time last year.
Enda Bolger (0-2-3), Davy Fitzgerald (0-2-4) & Dessie Hughes (0-2-5) have each saddled 2 placed finishers since 2003.
British–trained runners (0-1-9) have gained 0 wins and just 1 place from 9 runners in past 10 runnings.
Ruby Walsh (4-1-9) has a super record in this in past 10 years, riding 4 of the last 9 winners.
Barry Geraghty (2-2-8) has gained 3 wins and 2 places from his 9 rides in this since 2002.
5 of 10 winners tracked leader(s)
2 of 10 winners were settled in mid-division
3 of 10 winners were settle towards rear
7 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 10/1, however the last 2 winners have gone off at 20/1 & 33/1.
Favourites (1-6-11) gained their first win in the race for over 10 years in 2009. Level stakes loss of 5.00 since 2002.
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 to 8
- Carrying 10-10 or more
- Officially rated 135 or higher
- Finished in first 4 last time out (in last 50 days)
- Ran over hurdles on 1 of last 2 starts
- Run in 8 or fewer handicap chases
- Second or third season chaser
- Gained 1 to 4 previous chase wins
- Won over 2M 3F+ (ideally won over 2M 6F+)
- Won a chase worth 10K+
- Won or placed at a previous Listowel Festival
- Finished in first 4 in a chase at 2013 Cheltenham Festival
- First 5 in 2012 Kerry National and/or Munster National
- Finished in first 6 in the 2013 Galway Plate (or ran at another race at that festival)
- Trained by Willie Mullins, Eric McNamara or Tony Martin
- Ridden by Ruby Walsh or Barry Geraghty
Fortunately one horse pulled me out of the doodoo yesterday at Listowel and it was Fulminata (K J Manning, 8/1). I guess if one nice priced winner keeps coming in each day of a Festival it isn’t such a disaster punting wise.
Today’s Listowel fancies:
3.05 List- Masai (win).
3.35 List- Vasoni & Jembatt (e/w).
4.05 List- Lanyard (win).
4.40 List- Maggie Dalton (e/w).
5.10 List- Bac In A Tic (e/w).
5.45 List- Call Me Bubbles & Isben (e/w).
6.15 List- The Fox Tully & Fire Belt (e/w).
Today’s picture tip! 😉