Plumpton (Monday)

plumpton

Lots of fine lunching and making money for charity at Plumpton today on a super autumnal Monday.

Today’s Plumpton fancies:

2.30 Plump- Twelve Strings (e/w).

3.00 Plump- June French (win).

3.30 Plump- Stag Hill (e/w).

4.00 Plump- De Blacksmith (win).

4.30 Plump- Taradrewe (win).

5.00 Plump- Scales (e/w).

5.30 Plump- The Selector (e/w).

Tune into Radio Plumpton today! ;-)

Cheltenham (Saturday)

Apologies for no blog post yesterday. I was away on a jaunt to Haydock Park for the final flat meeting of the season on what turned out to be a glorious day weather wise for mid-October. Cam Hardie kept my betting bank ticking over and a nice away tickle on Berkshire (20/1) at Newmarket helped me draw level on the day.

Today’s fancies are at Cheltenham:

2.00 Chelt- In The Rough (win).

2.35 Chelt- Astracad & Sew On Target (e/w).

3.10 Chelt- Tiger Roll (win).

3.45 Chelt- Mart Lane & Duke Of Lucca (e/w).

4.25 Chelt- Andy Kelly (e/w).

5.00 Chelt- Splash Of Ginge (win).

5.30 Chelt- Going For Gold (e/w).

Gold- always believe in your soul! ;-)

 

Wetherby (Wednesday)

youngracegoers

kidcanpickbetter

I’ve not had cause to block someone on Twitter for a long time but I’m afraid Mr Pinder got an instant one the moment he posted this insult on my time line seconds after the Huntingdon blog first went up yesterday. I gave him the opportunity to apologise or expand on his reasoning but unsurprisingly he never got back. So he’s now locked up in my own Twitter jail along with the handful of people from “Team Boom” who used to pass my work off as their own back in the day.

As of yesterday I’ve changed the tagline on this blog and and I’m also going to be adding a disclaimer to the end of each post as there appears to be some confusion. Those of you who have followed for the five years I have been doing this are aware this isn’t a tipping site. It’s a friendly blog and simply a mere mirror image of my own punting afternoon at a particular meeting where I back all those I post up in each race to either win or each-way. So yes, I sometimes have two, even three horses in a sizable field.

Sometimes you tell me you follow certain fancies, sometimes you swerve them, sometimes they reinforce your own convictions but I’m pretty sure the majority of you have never considered them as tips. I think you’ll find you get tips from a pay site Mr Pinder and then you may have cause to gripe when they send out some right duffers.

Yesterday’s free offerings included:  Tiradia (A Coleman, 16/1), Milgen Bay (L Aspell, 3/1), Ordo Ab Chao (W Hutchinson, 1/3 fav) & The Druids Nephew (A P McCoy, 4/6 fav).

Today’s Wetherby fancies:

2.20 Weth- Blue Talisman & Two B’s (e/w).

2.50 Weth- Un Anjou (win).

3.25 Weth- Fair Loch (e/w).

4.00 Weth- Alderbrook Lad (e/w).

4.35 Weth- Fort Worth (e/w).

5.35 Weth- Mr Moonshine & Lackamon (e/w).

We’re the kids in the betting shop! ;-)

Disclaimer: Whilst I endeavour to post up winning fancies I accept no liability for the performance of my selections which are for entertainment purposes only and are simply a charting of my own punting day.

 

Huntingdon (Tuesday)

huntingdonA blank day at Sedgefield yesterday all bar a few placers so I’m hoping to do better at Huntingdon today.

Today’s Huntingdon fancies:

2.20 Hunt- Tiradia & Osgood (e/w).

2.50 Hunt- Milgen Bay (win).

3.20 Hunt- Ordo Ab Chao (win).

3.50 Hunt- The Ould Lad (win).

4.20 Hunt- What An Oscar (e/w).

4.50 Hunt- The Druid’s Nephew (win).

5.20 Hunt- Kilgeel Hill (e/w).

Happy retirement Captain! ;-)

Disclaimer: Whilst I endeavour to post up winning fancies I accept no liability for the performance of my selections which are for entertainment purposes only and are simply a charting of my own punting day.

Sedgefield (Monday) with Tommo

sedgefield

Ho Ho Ho Big Fella!

Today’s Sedgefield fancies:

2.10 Sedge- Sindarban (win).

2.40 Sedge- Kwo Neshe (e/w).

3.10 Sedge- Solway Dornal (e/w).

3.45 Sedge- Monita Bonita (win).

4.20 Sedge- Blackwater King (win).

4.50 Sedge- Claude Carter (e/w).

5.20 Sedge- Safe Investment (win).

Are you well? ;-)

Munster Munch for Golden Wonder?

Limerick

It’s Munster National Day at Limerick today and there’s a great field contesting this years renewal.

For those of you who like trends here I some I discovered for the last ten years of this race.

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-4-12
7yo: 4-10-38
8yo: 5-2-32
9yo: 0-5-35
10yo: 0-2-14
11yo+: 0-0-8
The last 10 winners have been aged 6 to 8, who have a combined record of 10-16-82 compared to horses aged 9+: 0-7-57.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

horses carrying 10-6 or higher: 4-12-76
horses carrying 10-5 or lower: 6-11-63
6 of the last 10 winners carried 10-5 or less, and they represented just over 45% of total runners.
Top Weight: 5F702507P8 (0-0-10)

Official Ratings

horses rated 130 or higher: 4-10-69
horses rated 119 to 129: 6-13-62
horses rated 118 or lower: 0-0-8
Last 5 winners were officially rated 122 to 138, that ratings band also accounted for 14 of 16 places in past 5 renewals.

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on one or both of last two chase starts
7 of 10 winners posted a career high chase RPR of 129+ on last completed chase start
6 of 10 winners had not run in the past 60 days
4 of 10 winners had previously won at the track (5 exceptions were having first course start and other was placed on only previous start here in a handicap chase)
7 of 10 winners had run in a class 1 chase (1 exception had won a chase worth 26K and other 2 had run in a grade 2 hurdle)
10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 4F+
10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 4 times over fences (exception won 5 times)
9 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in 8 or fewer handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicap chases
10 of 10 winners were 1st, 2nd or 3rd season chasers
4 of 10 winners were unplaced in a chase at that year’s Punchestown Festival

Other Races

Highest Placed finisher from previous season’s Troyrown: 31P4U (1-2-5)
Belvedere House, Gardens & Park Handicap Chase winner (Raajih): Klb 17 May 3m1f
4 of 10 winners had run in a 2M 6F chase at Galway in August/September
2 of 10 winners had their last start in a chase at the Punchestown Festival
2 of 10 winners ran in Pat Taaffe H’cap Chase, finishing 0F
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year’s Troytown, finishing 06
2 of 10 winners ran in the Kerry National, finishing 20
2 of 10 winners ran in the Midlands National, finishing 11

Trainers

Noel Meade (2-3-13) trained the winner in 2005 & 2011 and saddled the runner-up in 4 of the other 10 runnings since 2002.
Tom Taaffe (1-0-2) & Dessie Hughes (1-0-6) have also both saddled the winner in past 5 years.
Gordon Elliot (0-1-1) and Charles Byrnes (0-1-1) have saddled a placed finisher in past 3 runnings.
Arthur Moore (0-0-2) trained the winner in 2001 and runner-up in 2003 but his 2 in past 10 years have both been unplaced.

Racing Tactics

8 of 10 winners were held up in midfield or in rear

Price

No very strong trend on prices, though 8 of last 10 winners were sent off 10/1 or shorter.
Favourites (2-2-12) have won the race twice in the past 10 years but show a level stakes loss of 5.25.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 6 to 8
– Carrying 10-5 or less
– Officially rated 122 to 138
– Finished in the first 3 on one or both of last 2 chase starts
– Posted a career high chase RPR of 129+ on last chase start
– Course winner (or having first start here)
– Won 1 to 4 times over fences
– Won a chase over 2M 4F+
– First, second or third season chaser
– Run in 8 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 3)
– Ran in a chase at the 2014 Punchestown Festival
– Run in a 2M 6F handicap chase at Galway in past 90 days
– Previously run in a class 1 chase
– Trained by Noel Meade.

Today’s Limerick fancies:

2.25 Lim- Guitar Pete (win).

2.55 Lim- Hash Brown (win).

3.30 Lim- Supreme Vic (e/w).

4.05 Lim- Sir Harry Cash (e/w).

4.40 Lim- Pass The Hat (win).

5.10 Lim- Golden Wonder & Raajih (e/w).

5.40 Lim- Mister Hotelier (win).

Far too scary! ;-)

Cesarewitch 2014

cesare

Don’t worry folks. I don’t intend to roll out my 1996 antepost Cesarewitch story about Inchcailloch again as I’ve already done that one to death. I would like to say however this is one of the most interesting conundrums in the flat calendar every year and I always look forward to the race. In fact it usually spells my very last financial interest on the flat for the season as the form lines rapidly taper off.

Well what can I say about the blog results at Newton Abbot yesterday other than what an amazing start to the jumps season. Burtons Well (A Coleman, 20/1),  (R Johnson, 2/1 fav), Our Maimie (W Hutchinson, 7/1) & Abbeygrey (Mr A Wedge, 10/11 fav). Let’s hope there’s plenty more NH days like that to come in the season 2014/15.

If you’re excited for the forthcoming National Hunt Season  why not join in with a special Showcase Meeting & Season Preview broadcast on the JPFestival website this Thursday. Click the banner below for details:

octpreview

Today’s Newmarket fancies:

2.05 New- Order Of St George (win).

2.40 New- Vanity Rules & Wahgah (e/w).

3.10 New- Top Tug & Fire Fighting (e/w).

3.50 New- Digeanta, Suegioo & Moidore (e/w).

4.25 New- Moruadh (e/w).

5.05 New- Parsley (win).

5.40 New- Shama & Nanton (e/w).

Did I mention I had this one at fancy odds? ;-)