Cheltenham Festival 2017 (Gold Cup Day)

Today’s Cheltenham fancies:

1.30 Chelt- Defi Du Seuil (3.45) win.

2.10 Chelt- Air Horse One (15.5) & Renetti (16.5) e/w.

2.50 Chelt- The Worlds End (10.0) & Ami Desbois (30.0) e/w.

3.30 Chelt- Outlander (12.5) & Native River (6.2) e/w.

4.10 Chelt- Ask The Weatherman (9.2), Aupcharlie (40.0) & Pentiffic (300.0) e/w.

4.50 Chelt- Taglietelle (28.0) & Dadsintrouble (22.0) e/w.

5.30 Chelt- Solita (32.0), Calipto (21.0) & Bright New Dawn (60.0) e/w.

The Thinker wins 30 years ago today.

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2 responses to “Cheltenham Festival 2017 (Gold Cup Day)

  1. Hi Mully

    Good to see you much aligned with ourselves for the Gold Cup.

    Here are own own ramblings on the race in case you have any interest.
    ————————————–

    Cheltenham Gold Cup Analysis

    Today’s Bet

    Split Stake Bet
    to a £10 total nominal stake.

    Cheltenham 3.30

    Gold Cup

    £5.00 Win OUTLANDER 11/1

    £3.00 Win DJAKADAM 100/30

    £2.00 Win NATIVE RIVER 9/2

    I like this strategy
    I think Djakadam will win
    But the value has gone now
    OUTLANDER has the best profile
    Gordon Elliots is on record as saying
    He is not in the same league as Don Cossack
    That has helped the price a lot
    He may be right
    But he may not need to be good enough
    I have “Bought” my dangers out of the race
    This means we are on OUTLANDER at 6/1
    With cash back if Djakadam or Native River wins
    Very optimistic OUTLANDER can beat the rest
    Cue Card has some strong statistics against him
    Sizing Europe has to prove stamina
    He is only 6 years 10 months old and not a 7yo
    Which is a problem also facing Native River

    The open issue I can not nail
    Is we have horses 6 years and 10 months old
    Who come here with recent races
    We have horses aged 8 and 9
    Who come here with longer absences

    Which of these groups are more suitable
    Will probably hold the key to the race
    Statistically there is no clear cut answer
    But I know many recent renewals
    Went to 9 year olds with very similar absences
    To the one that OUTLANDER has today
    And I feel he is a pretty decent choice of bet
    A bet I personally think is well staked and protected

    C h e l t e n h a m 3.30

    Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup
    (Grade 1) (5yo+) 3m2f70y

    10/3 Djakadam, 7/2 Cue Card, 7/2 Native River, 8/1 Outlander
    8/1 Sizing John, 10/1 Empire Of Dirt, 12/1 More Of That
    16/1 Champagne West, 20/1 Minella Rocco, 20/1 Bristol De Mai
    50/1 Smad Place, 50/1 Tea For Two, 66/1 Saphir Du Rheu
    66/1 Irish Cavalier

    The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f

    Horses with under 15 Chase runs are best
    The more over that you have
    The less your chance of winning

    The last 21 winners had the following chase runs
    18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11
    Only 2 of the last 21 winners had over 13 Chase starts
    Kauto Star was one of those
    Don Cossack also managed it last year
    That does not bother me
    Last year was a small field full of non stayers
    Most fancied runners had over 13 Chase runs last year
    It was the weakest Gold Cup in years

    Cue Card – 28 Chase runs
    Irish Cavalier – 19 Chase runs
    Smad Place – 16 Chase runs
    Djakadam – 14 Chase runs
    Bristol De Mai – 12 Chase runs
    Saphir Du Rheu – 12 Chase runs
    Champagne West – 11 Chase runs
    Native River – 10 Chase runs
    Outlander – 10 Chase runs
    Sizing John – 9 Chase runs
    Minella Rocco – 8 Chase runs
    More Of That – 7 Chase runs
    Tea For Two – 7 Chase runs

    CUE CARD has problems
    I do not like the fact he is 11 years old
    Or that he also has 28 previous Chase starts
    Horses aged 11 and over haven’t won since 1969
    All 41 that ran in the last 20 years lost.
    Horses aged 10 or more are just 1-102 since 1992
    Older horses like CUE CARD struggle in this race
    So to do horses with over 13 Chase starrs
    CUE CARD with 28 chase runs is too exposed
    There is a Breeding angle against him too
    CUE CARD is sired by King’s Theatre
    If you look at the sires Grade 1 -2 winners
    None have won beyond 3m 1f yet
    CUE CARD is opposed
    Ignore the other horses with over 15 Chases
    IRISH CAVALIER does not look good enough
    SMAD PLACE has twice failed in this race
    SMAD PLACE is 0-12 in Grade 1 races now
    Very hard to see some of these being good enough
    SAPHIR DU RHEU is rated some way behind the best
    He may not stay this far anyway
    TEA FOR TWO is talented but miles behind on form
    This track hardly seems likely to improve him

    MINELLA ROCCO comes here Fell & Unseated
    Hardly a Gold Cup winning profile
    Because of falling early on last time
    He has had just over 2 races this season
    Since 1982 there have been 5 winners aged 7
    These 5 winners ran 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
    MINELLA ROCCO has fewer than all of them
    That leaves him short of all recent 7yo winners
    That’s why I can’t commit to him

    CHAMPAGNE WEST has plenty to prove
    He is not proven over 3m or more in Graded Class
    His sire Westerner does not inspire me much
    Horses sired by Westerner
    Running in Class 2 or higher
    Running over 3m 2f or more
    Have a 0-21 record so far
    CHAMPAGNE WEST may not stay

    BRISTOL DE MAI is a 6 year old
    In fact he is only 5 years 10 months old
    That has to be a chilling thought
    When Long Run won this as a 6 year old
    He did so with an official rating of 179
    BRISTOL DE MAI is only rated 154
    I will be surprised if he has enough to win

    MORE OF THAT has had a disappoiting season
    Probably does not matter given his trainer
    He was a beaten favourite in last years RSA Chase
    No surprised there given he failed multiple angles then
    My biggest worry is that he is sired by Beneficial
    Not a sire I could trust in Grade 1 races over 3m 2f
    MORE OF THAT is still only rated 157
    And comes here unseating his rider last time
    But I suppose he is the least experienced chaser
    He has more scope than Most
    He is a Cheltenham Festival winner over hurdles
    And a Career best today is highly likely
    Bt I think he falls short on a few things
    His Jockey is 1-102 at the festival
    His Jockey is 0-45 in Chases at the festival

    Shortlist

    SIZING JOHN
    NATIVE RIVER
    DJAKADAM
    OUTLANDER

    SIZING JOHN has to prove his stamina
    Go back a year and he was running over 2 miles
    One of my biggest problem with him
    Is that he has only raced once over 3 miles
    I may be wrong but I see that as a problem
    His Sire has not had a Graded winner over this far
    If he stays he is a player but I have my doubts
    He is not the biggest of horses either

    NATIVE RIVER has had a great year
    Won a Hennessy a Welsh National and Denman Chase
    I suppose if you nit pick a bit you find some issues
    I think he has to be part of the staking plan
    But I don’t think he is without criticism

    DJAKADAM has 14 Chase runs
    He is within the acceptable range for this race
    DJAKADAM was runner up in 2016 and 2015
    Both years he raced just twice during that season
    This year he has also had just 2 prep runs
    I would have liked more to be honest
    But it has been done and by 8 year olds
    And you can argue this is an easier race this year
    What swings it for me is last years race
    DJAKADAM was only a 7 year old last year
    We know all past 7yo winners of this race since 1982
    Had raced 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
    DJAKADAM last year had under 2 warm up races
    He had 1 proper race and fell at the 10th in his prep run
    That Fall caused him to suffer an interrupted preparation
    DJAKADAM did a Racing Post Rating of 177 last year
    He did that in this race when underraced as a 7yo
    With an interrupted preparation as well
    When he was second in the 2015 renewal
    He was technically only 5 years and 10 months
    And short of races as well that season
    The more I think about him I must upgrade him

    OUTLANDER has a nice profile
    I don’t think we can underestimate him
    Last time out on Racing Post Ratings
    OUTLANDER produced a career best 170 run
    He has to prove he stays this far
    His sire has a Grade 1 winner over 3m
    None in this class over further though
    But that is not to say he can not stay
    And his Numbers are showing consistent improvement
    For me he must be part of the staking plan
    He is 11/1 and coming off a career best run
    Having won a recognised trial race easily

    Look at the Ages on the shortlist

    SIZING JOHN – 7 year old
    NATIVE RIVER – 7 year old
    DJAKADAM 8 year old
    OUTLANDER 9 year old

    This may be relevant

    7 year olds have not won for 10 years now
    All 17 that tried were beaten since then
    Technically if we look at foaling dates

    NATIVE RIVER is not yet a 7 year old
    SIZING JOHN is not yet a 7 year old
    Neither have yet reached their 7th birthday

    That pushes me more towards the older pair
    DJAKADAM and OUTLANDER

    OUTLANDER is 9 years old
    He has an absence
    If I look at 9 year olds
    Absent more than 46 days
    Starting under 20/1
    Coming from 3m or shorter
    Coming from a PatteRn race
    I find a 5-13 record
    They won in the following years
    1999 2004 2009 2010 2012 2016
    OUTLANDER must have a serious chance

    Gun to my head
    I think DJAKADAM will probably win
    But too many people think the saver
    The value has been sucked out of his price

    At the prices I think this is a decent bet
    We Buy NATIVE RIVER out of the race
    We Buy DJAKADAM out of the race

    Leaving OUTLANDER with a good profile
    And a Career best last time out
    To beat a handful of dangers all with flaws

    Selection

    £5.00 Win OUTLANDER 11/1

    £3.00 Win DJAKADAM 100/30

    £2.00 Win NATIVE RIVER 9/2

    http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

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