Munster Munch for Golden Wonder?

Limerick

It’s Munster National Day at Limerick today and there’s a great field contesting this years renewal.

For those of you who like trends here I some I discovered for the last ten years of this race.

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-4-12
7yo: 4-10-38
8yo: 5-2-32
9yo: 0-5-35
10yo: 0-2-14
11yo+: 0-0-8
The last 10 winners have been aged 6 to 8, who have a combined record of 10-16-82 compared to horses aged 9+: 0-7-57.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

horses carrying 10-6 or higher: 4-12-76
horses carrying 10-5 or lower: 6-11-63
6 of the last 10 winners carried 10-5 or less, and they represented just over 45% of total runners.
Top Weight: 5F702507P8 (0-0-10)

Official Ratings

horses rated 130 or higher: 4-10-69
horses rated 119 to 129: 6-13-62
horses rated 118 or lower: 0-0-8
Last 5 winners were officially rated 122 to 138, that ratings band also accounted for 14 of 16 places in past 5 renewals.

Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on one or both of last two chase starts
7 of 10 winners posted a career high chase RPR of 129+ on last completed chase start
6 of 10 winners had not run in the past 60 days
4 of 10 winners had previously won at the track (5 exceptions were having first course start and other was placed on only previous start here in a handicap chase)
7 of 10 winners had run in a class 1 chase (1 exception had won a chase worth 26K and other 2 had run in a grade 2 hurdle)
10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 4F+
10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 4 times over fences (exception won 5 times)
9 of 10 winners (last 7) had run in 8 or fewer handicap chases
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicap chases
10 of 10 winners were 1st, 2nd or 3rd season chasers
4 of 10 winners were unplaced in a chase at that year’s Punchestown Festival

Other Races

Highest Placed finisher from previous season’s Troyrown: 31P4U (1-2-5)
Belvedere House, Gardens & Park Handicap Chase winner (Raajih): Klb 17 May 3m1f
4 of 10 winners had run in a 2M 6F chase at Galway in August/September
2 of 10 winners had their last start in a chase at the Punchestown Festival
2 of 10 winners ran in Pat Taaffe H’cap Chase, finishing 0F
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year’s Troytown, finishing 06
2 of 10 winners ran in the Kerry National, finishing 20
2 of 10 winners ran in the Midlands National, finishing 11

Trainers

Noel Meade (2-3-13) trained the winner in 2005 & 2011 and saddled the runner-up in 4 of the other 10 runnings since 2002.
Tom Taaffe (1-0-2) & Dessie Hughes (1-0-6) have also both saddled the winner in past 5 years.
Gordon Elliot (0-1-1) and Charles Byrnes (0-1-1) have saddled a placed finisher in past 3 runnings.
Arthur Moore (0-0-2) trained the winner in 2001 and runner-up in 2003 but his 2 in past 10 years have both been unplaced.

Racing Tactics

8 of 10 winners were held up in midfield or in rear

Price

No very strong trend on prices, though 8 of last 10 winners were sent off 10/1 or shorter.
Favourites (2-2-12) have won the race twice in the past 10 years but show a level stakes loss of 5.25.

Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

– Aged 6 to 8
– Carrying 10-5 or less
– Officially rated 122 to 138
– Finished in the first 3 on one or both of last 2 chase starts
– Posted a career high chase RPR of 129+ on last chase start
– Course winner (or having first start here)
– Won 1 to 4 times over fences
– Won a chase over 2M 4F+
– First, second or third season chaser
– Run in 8 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 3)
– Ran in a chase at the 2014 Punchestown Festival
– Run in a 2M 6F handicap chase at Galway in past 90 days
– Previously run in a class 1 chase
– Trained by Noel Meade.

Today’s Limerick fancies:

2.25 Lim- Guitar Pete (win).

2.55 Lim- Hash Brown (win).

3.30 Lim- Supreme Vic (e/w).

4.05 Lim- Sir Harry Cash (e/w).

4.40 Lim- Pass The Hat (win).

5.10 Lim- Golden Wonder & Raajih (e/w).

5.40 Lim- Mister Hotelier (win).

Far too scary! 😉

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s