Melbourne Cup 2011

With fairly uninspiring racing today on UK shores I’m going to concentrate on a few fancies for the early hours of Tuesday morning at Flemington (04.00 GMT).

My three eachway fancies are:

  • Niwot (9-1)
  • Drunken Sailor (28-1)
  • Red Cadeaux (25-1)

Niwot will be as sharp as a button after winning the Group 3 Lexus Stakes at Flemington just three days ago and qualifying for the weights. Any horse with some Sadler’s Wells progeny in it is good enough for me 😀

Drunken Sailor has had a 17-day rest. I was very impressed by the manor in which this horse won the Glorious Stakes (Jukebox Jury behind in third) and I can see a similar late on the scene scenario happening here.

Red Cadeaux is a favourite of mine as I was always keen on Cadeaux Genereux too. He often gets outpaced mid-division but if there are any floundering out in front he often find the reserves to run them down.

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Yesterday’s sole winner at Carlisle was Arisea (Mr J Belbin, 7-1 ). Joel Belbin gave this one a patient astute ride for his first winner under rules and Joel looks a good prospect for the future.

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Red - will he dare?

Remember to set your alarm clocks! 😉

4 responses to “Melbourne Cup 2011

  1. Hi mate i have the race as this..

    Back – lllo
    Value – Lucas Crannach
    Alt – Dunaden
    Value Lay – Americain

    Others to note would be , fox hunt , at first sight and glass harmonium.

    Americain , regardless of its chances at 7/2 has to be taken on as there is no value implied or otherwise and with so many holding claims it would be folly to take it.

    Modun for me does not fully stay this trip and will have to run the race of its career to figure.

    Jukebox Jury is not the stables first string and may well be found wanting here, may struggle to dominate a top class field.

    The field can be narrowed down to around 10 runners as quite a few are just not upto this , take out the top ten, then mark up their prices as if it was a 10 runner race then assert value…
    For me this is how i see this great race panning out.

    GOOD LUCK AND KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK.

  2. Drunken Sailor ran in the Caulfield Cup – 17 days ago…

  3. Hi Steve

    Hard luck with Red Cadeaux mate, I thought for a few moments that he’d got it!

    Keep up the good work
    Mark

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